9. Stochastic modelling of inter-annual variation of hydrologic variables

Dralle, D., Karst, N., Müller, M.F., Vico, G. and Thompson, S.E. (2017), Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1002/2017GL074139

Quantifying the interannual variability of hydrologic variables (such as annual flow volumes, and solute or sediment loads) is a central challenge in hydrologic modeling. Annual or seasonal hydrologic variables are themselves the integral of instantaneous variations and can be well approximated as an aggregate sum of the daily variable. Process-based, probabilistic techniques are available to describe the stochastic structure of daily flow, yet estimating interannual variations in the corresponding aggregated variable requires consideration of the autocorrelation structure of the flow time series. Here we present a method based on a probabilistic streamflow description to obtain the interannual variability of flow-derived variables. The results provide insight into the mechanistic genesis of interannual variability of hydrologic processes. Such clarification can assist in the characterization of ecosystem risk and uncertainty in water resources management. We demonstrate two applications, one quantifying seasonal flow variability and the other quantifying net suspended sediment export.