33*. Food availability implications of wheat export disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine

Bertassello, L. and Muller, M.F., In Review

​Wheat export disruptions due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine will ripple through the global trade
network and affect food security far away from the battlefield. Together, Russia and Ukraine
account for a third of the world's wheat exports and are among the primary suppliers for most
countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Concerns have emerged that rising
food prices might give rise to potentially violent social unrest. Yet the impact of the war in Ukraine
on food security will vary substantially between countries, depending on (i) the preponderance of
wheat as a key source of caloric intake, (ii) their reliance on imported Ukrainian wheat and (iii) the
status of their own wheat reserve stocks. Using international trade and balance sheet data from
the Food and Agricultural Organization, we identified Libya, Lebanon, Tunisia, and Yemen as
particularly vulnerable to food security disruption associated with the Ukrainian due to the
alignment of these three factors. In Lebanon and Libya, we expect average per capita caloric
intake to decrease by almost 20% by solely the disruption of Ukraine wheat imports, without
considering other factors or products that could push even further the countries below the
average dietary energy requirement (ADER). While our analysis also suggests that global wheat
reserves are sufficient to curtail these impending food crises, immediate action is needed to
ensure that these reserves remain accessible to vulnerable countries.